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J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2007;133:603-607
© 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery

Statistics for the Rest of Us

The value of aortic valve replacement in elderly patients: An economic analysis

Providence Heart and Vascular Institute, Providence Health System, Portland, Ore.

Received for publication April 17, 2006; revisions received July 13, 2006; accepted for publication August 7, 2006.

^_* Address for reprints: YingXing Wu, MD, Providence Health System, 9205 SW Barnes, Suite 33, Portland, OR 97225. (Email: yingxing.wu{at}providence.org).

Objective: Economists have designed frameworks to measure the economic value of improvements in health and longevity. Heart valve replacement surgery has significantly prolonged life expectancy and quality of life. For the example of aortic valve replacement, what is its economic value according to this framework?

Methods: From 1961 through 2003, a total of 4617 adult patients underwent aortic valve replacement by one team of cardiac surgeons. These patients were provided with a prospective lifetime follow-up service. As of 2005, observed follow-up was 31,671 patient-years, with a maximum of 41 years. A statistical model was used to generate the future life-years of patients currently alive. The value of life-years proposed by economists was applied to determine the economic value of the additional life given to these patients by aortic valve replacement.

Results: The total life-years after aortic valve replacement were 53,323, with a gross value of $14.6 billion. The total expected life-years without surgery were 10,157, with an estimated value of $3.0 billion. Thus the net life-years gained by AVR were 43,166, worth $11.6 billion. Subtracting the $451 million total lifetime cost of surgery, the net value of the life-years gained by AVR was $11.2 billion. The mean net value decreases according to age at surgery but is still worth $600,000 for octogenarians and $200,000 for nonagenarians.

Conclusion: According to the economic concept of the value of a statistical life, the return on the investment for aortic valve replacement is enormous for patients of all ages, even very elderly patients.

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